New post: AI hype, AI bullshit, and the real deal

content/posts/2024-08-26-ai-hype-ai-bullshit-and-the-real-deal/index.md

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+---
+title: AI hype, AI bullshit, and the real deal
+author: Yanir Seroussi
+type: post
+date: 2024-08-26T01:00:00+00:00
+url: /2024/08/26/ai-hype-ai-bullshit-and-the-real-deal/
+cover:
+  relative: true
+  image: alice-sparkly-ai-wonderland.webp
+  alt: Alice in the Sparkly AI Wonderland (generated by Meta AI)
+summary: My views on separating AI hype and bullshit from the real deal. The general ideas apply to past and future hype waves in tech.
+tags:
+  - artificial intelligence
+  - business
+  - career
+  - marketing
+---
+Are you tired of ✨ AI buttons everywhere?
+
+Have you had enough of false AI 💫 promises by vendors and grifters?
+
+Well, it might be tempting to dismiss AI as a fad and become a grumpy AI cynic.
+
+Don't do that!
+
+As with any hype wave, you need to discern between marketing bullshit and the real deal.
+
+Here's how I think about it.
+
+## AI hype
+
+{{< blockquote link="https://www.google.com/search?q=define%3Ahype" title="Google Search" >}}
+**hype (noun):** extravagant or intensive publicity or promotion.
+{{< /blockquote >}}
+
+I doubt anyone would challenge the claim that we've been witnessing AI hype over the past two years.
+The above definition perfectly describes the situation: The collection of technologies named _AI_ is receiving intensive publicity and promotion.
+
+While publicity doesn't always imply utility, hype doesn't diminish the actual value of AI.
+The value of the tech is real &ndash; but it needs to be wielded wisely.
+
+Regardless of value, hype tends to follow what Andrew Chen called [The Law of Shitty Clickthroughs](https://andrewchen.com/the-law-of-shitty-clickthroughs/): _"Over time, all marketing strategies result in shitty clickthrough rates"_.
+
+With ubiquitous ✨ AI buttons and seemingly every tech company talking about its AI solutions, the novelty of AI _promises_ is quickly wearing off.
+Reduced novelty leads to lower clickthrough rates, i.e., lower engagement.
+And that's exactly what you would expect as a result of hype.
+
+It may even be worse than mere lower engagement, though. [Evidence is emerging that the use of the term AI in product descriptions is leading to reduced trust](https://tech.co/news/products-ai-mentions-sell-worse). As an indie consultant who uses AI to describe some of my offerings, I've experienced such negative reactions myself. For example, one conference attendee explicitly stated he didn't trust my use of the AI label. Later, he admitted that in my case I can legitimately say I work on AI &ndash; I've been in the field for over a decade, and I try to avoid peddling bullshit. However, I don't know how many people avoid engaging me *because* I mention the now-loaded term.
+
+In short, **hype leads to familiarity and potential contempt &ndash; using AI in marketing may backfire regardless of underlying value.**
+
+## AI bullshit
+
+{{< blockquote link="https://callingbullshit.org/" title="Calling Bullshit: Data Reasoning in a Digital World" >}}
+**bullshit (noun):** language, statistical figures, data graphics, and other forms of presentation intended to persuade by impressing and overwhelming a reader or listener, with a blatant disregard for truth and logical coherence.
+{{< /blockquote >}}
+
+Where there's hype and money, there will be people who try to generate profit via bullshit.
+In AI's case this includes anyone who focuses on the tech rather than on addressing real needs, and those who over-promise and under-deliver.
+Such bullshit artists exist all along the (low) value chain &ndash; from consultants up to CEOs who spin stories about AI to appease shareholders.
+
+Stories like this are not new &ndash; the Dilbert strip below could work just as well today, with "AI" replacing "Big Data".
+
+**The reality is that AI can't save a business where the fundamentals are broken.**
+This is because AI tech is broadly accessible &ndash; simply using AI doesn't confer a unique advantage.
+
+{{< figure src="dilbert-big-data.jpg" alt="Dilbert on Big Data" >}}
+
+## The real deal
+
+{{< blockquote link="https://yanirseroussi.com/til/2023/10/06/artificial-intelligence-was-a-marketing-term-all-along-just-call-it-automation/" title="Paraphrasing Emily M. Bender" >}}
+**artificial intelligence (noun):**
+1. a marketing term &ndash; a way to make certain kinds of automation sound sophisticated, powerful, or magical.
+2. the name of a subfield of computer science concerned with making machines that "think like humans".
+{{< /blockquote >}}
+
+Given all the AI hype and AI bullshit, it's easy to become cynical and dismiss anything with the AI label (with or without ✨).
+But if you go too far down the cynical path, you will miss out on true technological breakthroughs.
+
+This applies at every level: Dismissing AI is foolish, whether you're a CEO or an individual contributor.
+[ChatGPT and its cousins remain transformative](https://yanirseroussi.com/2022/12/11/chatgpt-is-transformative-ai/), as are all the specialised tools that are sprouting everywhere.
+This includes everything from coding assistants and meeting transcribers to summarisers and advanced search tools.
+
+Simply using AI doesn't confer a unique advantage &ndash; but **cynically dismissing AI puts you at a disadvantage**.
+The world is changing quickly, and you should aim to use the best tools at your disposal.
+But "best" doesn't mean the shiniest sparkle &ndash; it means the best _value_ depending on your budget and task.
+
+**Treat AI as you would any other automation**, and heed the advice embedded in [the xkcd comic](https://xkcd.com/1205/) below.
+Automate where it'd make a real difference to you &ndash; not where it's trendy.
+
+{{< figure src="is-it-worth-the-time-xkcd.png" alt="xkcd comic with a table presenting the trade-off between time spent on automation and the time saved" >}}