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Co-authored-by: Anca Anghelea <[email protected]>
Co-authored-by: santilland <[email protected]>
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###### *This story is based on results from the [3<sup>rd</sup> Earth System Science Challenge]( https://sciencehub.esa.int/2024/05/09/3rd-earth-system-science-challenge/) organised and hosted by ESA's ESRIN Science Hub in February 2024*

The research presented in this story was developed in the frame of the Earth System Science Challenge organised by the European Space Agency and hosted at ESRIN’s Science Hub in February 2024. The scope of this challenge was to identify the days on which severe air pollution episodes occured in northern India and Pakistan, using the percentile technique applied on time series of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations measured by Copernicus Sentinel-5p TROPOMI. The method was implemented on the [DeepESDL platform](https://earthsystemdatalab.net) by a team of PhD students from University of Edinburgh and University of Leeds. The data and code are made openly available.
The research presented in this story was developed in the frame of the Earth System Science Challenge organised by the European Space Agency and hosted at ESRIN’s Science Hub in February 2024. The scope of this challenge was to identify the days on which severe air pollution episodes occured in northern India and Pakistan, using the percentile technique applied on time series of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations measured by Copernicus Sentinel-5p TROPOMI. The method was implemented on the [DeepESDL platform](https://earthsystemdatalab.net) by a team of PhD students from Sorbonne Université. The data and code are made openly available.

## Air Pollution and Health
Air pollution is a real concern for human health, as poor air quality may lead to breathing difficulties, cardiovascular disease, or cancer. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), "outdoor air pollution is estimated to have caused 4.2 million premature deaths worldwide in 2019". "Some 89% of those premature deaths occurred in low- and middle-income countries, and the greatest number in the WHO South-East Asia and Western Pacific Regions." (WHO 2024)
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# El Niño impacts: Rising Global Sea Surface Temperatures
# El Niño 2023-2024 (Part 2): Rising Global Sea Surface Temperatures

In the past, natural factors were the primary drivers of El Niño and La Niña cycles. However, human activity, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases, is now influencing these climate patterns. Recent studies [1] suggest that climate change is making both El Niño and La Niña more frequent and more intense [2]. These shifts are already having widespread consequences, affecting an estimated 40 to 50 million people across 16 countries [3], especially in regions like eastern and southern Africa, the Horn of Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean, and the Asia-Pacific.

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</figcaption>
</figure>


Understanding these changes is crucial for preparing and responding to climate impacts, and this is where Earth observation plays a pivotal role. Satellites and other remote sensing tools provided by space agencies such as JAXA, ESA and NASA provide continuous monitoring of the planet, offering scientists real-time data on sea surface temperatures (SST), weather patterns, and environmental changes. By analysing this data, researchers can detect early signs of El Niño or La Niña and predict their potential impacts, improving disaster preparedness and response efforts. Earth observation systems have become an indispensable tool in climate science, helping us better understand and mitigate the effects of a warming planet.

## Europe's Marine Heatwave

Marine heatwaves, characterised by unusually high ocean temperatures, are another pressing concern. These events can severely disrupt marine ecosystems, endangering biodiversity and affecting industries like fisheries, tourism, and aquaculture. In the summer of 2023, regions across Europe and Asia experienced significant marine heatwaves, as reported by the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The North Atlantic and the Mediterranean were hit particularly hard, leading to extreme sea surface temperature anomalies [5].
Marine heatwaves, characterised as prolonged periods of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs)], typically lasting days to months, impacting marine ecosystems and climate dynamics, are another pressing concern. These events can severely disrupt marine ecosystems, endangering biodiversity and affecting industries like fisheries, tourism, and aquaculture. In the summer of 2023, regions across Europe and Asia experienced significant marine heatwaves, as reported by the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The North Atlantic and the Mediterranean were hit particularly hard, leading to extreme sea surface temperature anomalies [5].

The situation was especially alarming in the waters around Ireland and the United Kingdom, where sea temperatures soared to 5°C above average in June 2023. Across European waters, 2023 recorded the highest average sea surface temperatures ever documented, with parts of the Mediterranean Sea and northeastern Atlantic reaching unprecedented levels [6].


<figure style="text-align: center;">
<img src="https://marine.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/media/image/2023-09/Ocean%20heat%20content%20june%202023.png"
alt="El Niño and La Nina 2023 Land Temperatures"
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</figcaption>
</figure>

## European Marine Heatwave<!--{ as="eox-map" mode="tour" }-->
## European Marine Heatwave<!--{ as="eox-map" mode="tour" nav="false" }-->
### <!--{ layers='[{"type":"Tile","properties":{"id":"Overlay labels"},"source":{"type":"XYZ","urls":["//s2maps-tiles.eu/wmts/1.0.0/overlay_base_bright_3857/default/g/{z}/{y}/{x}.jpg"]}},{"type":"Tile","properties":{"id":"Ocean_Heat_Content_upper_300m-2023-06-01T00:00:00Z"},"source":{"type":"TileWMS","urls":["https://services.sentinel-hub.com/ogc/wms/0635c213-17a1-48ee-aef7-9d1731695a54"],"params":{"layers":"OCEAN_HEAT_CONTENT_UPPER_300M","styles":"","format":"image/png","time":"2023-06-01T00:00:00Z"}}},{"type":"Tile","properties":{"id":"EOxCloudless 2021"},"source":{"type":"XYZ","urls":["//s2maps-tiles.eu/wmts/1.0.0/s2cloudless-2021_3857/default/g/{z}/{y}/{x}.jpg"]}}]' zoom="3.98859305729493" center=[4.160473151186208,49.75160424907489] animationOptions={duration:500}}-->
#### Europe's Marine Heatwave
This map illustrates the **Ocean Heat Content (OHC300)** for June 2023. This variable, provided by ECMWF, measures the amount of heat stored in the upper 300 meters of the ocean, providing important insights into global warming. This data, from the ORAS5 system, combines models and global observations to offer a detailed view of ocean temperatures from 1958 to today.
#### Ocean's Heat Content
Marine heat waves are closely related with ocean heat content (OHC), which refers to the total amount of heat stored in the ocean, typically measured across various depths. OHC play a critical role on the development, persistence and intensity of Marine heatwaves: as ocean heat content increases due to global warming, the probability and intensity of marine heatwaves rise, as warmer subsurface water propagates to the surface, sustaining or intensifying marine heatwaves due to vertical mixing and upwelling processes [7]. This map illustrates the **Ocean Heat Content (OHC300)** for June 2023. This variable, provided by ECMWF, measures the amount of heat stored in the upper 300 meters of the ocean, providing important insights into global warming. This data, from the ORAS5 system, combines models and global observations to offer a detailed view of ocean temperatures from 1958 to today.

[**Explore this dataset on EO Dashboard**](https://eodashboard.org/explore?indicator=OHC300&x=0&y=1963285.60891&z=2.49185)

##
By January 2024, global sea surface temperatures set new records for the month, reflecting the ongoing warming trend [7]. As of late April 2024, Pacific temperatures began to show signs of cooling, indicating a potential transition to neutral conditions after the recent El Niño.
By January 2024, global sea surface temperatures set new records for the month, reflecting the ongoing warming trend [8]. As of late April 2024, Pacific temperatures began to show signs of cooling, indicating a potential transition to neutral conditions after the recent El Niño.

The latest World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts indicate a 60% chance of transitioning from the current neutral conditions to La Niña conditions emerging towards the end of this year, bringing yet another shift in global weather patterns [8].
The latest World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasts indicate a 60% chance of transitioning from the current neutral conditions to La Niña conditions emerging towards the end of this year, bringing yet another shift in global weather patterns [9].

## SST in Japan
## Japan’s Marine Heatwave

Since 2023, sea surface temperatures in the North-West Pacific, especially off the east coast of Japan, have shown significant increases. Recent studies of atmospheric and ocean conditions revealed that this rise in sea temperatures, both at the surface and below, likely contributed to the record-breaking heatwave in northern Japan during the summer of 2023 [9]. In particular, the east coast of Japan experienced much warmer waters as the cool Oyashio current was replaced by warmer water, due to an unusual northward shift of the Kuroshio Extension that began in spring 2023.
Since 2023, sea surface temperatures in the North-West Pacific, especially off the east coast of Japan, have shown significant increases. Recent studies of atmospheric and ocean conditions revealed that this rise in sea temperatures, both at the surface and below, likely contributed to the record-breaking heatwave in northern Japan during the summer of 2023 [10]. In particular, the east coast of Japan experienced much warmer waters as the cool Oyashio current was replaced by warmer water, due to an unusual northward shift of the Kuroshio Extension that began in spring 2023.


## Tohoku and Hokkaido Coasts <!--{ as="eox-map" mode="tour" }-->
## The Kuroshio extension <!--{ as="eox-map" mode="tour" }-->
### <!--{ layers='[{"type":"Tile","properties":{"id":"Overlay labels"},"source":{"type":"XYZ","urls":["//s2maps-tiles.eu/wmts/1.0.0/overlay_base_bright_3857/default/g/{z}/{y}/{x}.jpg"]}},{"type":"Tile","properties":{"id":"ENSST_by_GCOM-W-AMSR_JAXA-2024-08-10T12:00:00Z"},"source":{"type":"TileWMS","urls":["https://services.sentinel-hub.com/ogc/wms/0635c213-17a1-48ee-aef7-9d1731695a54"],"params":{"layers":"SST_BY_GCOM-W-AMSR_JAXA","styles":"","format":"image/png","time":"2024-08-10T12:00:00Z"}}},{"type":"Tile","properties":{"id":"Terrain light"},"source":{"type":"XYZ","urls":["//s2maps-tiles.eu/wmts/1.0.0/terrain-light_3857/default/g/{z}/{y}/{x}.jpg"]}}]' zoom="5.9946848894596" center=[138.60771491711697,43.23525543984803] animationOptions={duration:500}}-->
#### The Kuroshio extension
#### Unusual Shift of the Kuroshio Extension
Now, let's focus on the waters around Japan. In July 2023, sea surface temperatures (SST) were generally higher than normal, especially in the Pacific Ocean off the coasts of Tohoku and Hokkaido, where temperatures were more than 5°C above average. The map illustrates the Sea Surface Temperature from JAXA's GCOM-W around Japan on August 10, 2024. [**View more dates**](https://eodashboard.org/explore?indicator=ENSST&x=15431081.54924&y=4747312.96961&z=7.14583).

The Kuroshio Extension, which usually flows eastward from Joban-oki, shifted northward to Sanriku-oki, bringing much warmer waters. According to a report from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), these high sea temperatures likely contributed to the record heat experienced in northern Japan this summer.
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4. Our oceans are in hot water [ESA](https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Our_oceans_are_in_hot_water)
5. The 2023 Northern Hemisphere Summer Marks Record-Breaking Oceanic Events [Copernicus Marine Service](https://marine.copernicus.eu/news/2023-northern-hemisphere-summer-record-breaking-oceanic-events)
6. Global sea surface temperature reaches a record high [Copernicus Climate Change Service](https://climate.copernicus.eu/global-sea-surface-temperature-reaches-record-high)
7. At peak value of 2°C above average sea surface temperature, 2023-24 El Nino among strongest on record [Down To Earth](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/at-peak-value-of-2-c-above-average-sea-surface-temperature-2023-24-el-nino-among-strongest-on-record-94825)
8. WMO Update predicts 60% chance of La Niña [WMO 2024](https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-update-predicts-60-chance-of-la-nina)
9. Sato, H., Takemura, K., Ito, A. et al. Impact of an unprecedented marine heatwave on extremely hot summer over Northern Japan in 2023. Sci Rep 14, 16100 (2024). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-65291-y](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-65291-y)
7. Ocean Heat Content [Marine Copernicus](https://marine.copernicus.eu/ocean-climate-portal/ocean-heat-content)
9. At peak value of 2°C above average sea surface temperature, 2023-24 El Nino among strongest on record [Down To Earth](https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/at-peak-value-of-2-c-above-average-sea-surface-temperature-2023-24-el-nino-among-strongest-on-record-94825)
10. WMO Update predicts 60% chance of La Niña [WMO 2024](https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-update-predicts-60-chance-of-la-nina)
11. Sato, H., Takemura, K., Ito, A. et al. Impact of an unprecedented marine heatwave on extremely hot summer over Northern Japan in 2023. Sci Rep 14, 16100 (2024). [https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-65291-y](https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-65291-y)



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