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Aurora: A Foundation Model for the Earth System | ||
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Aurora is a machine learning model that can predict atmospheric variables, such as temperature. | ||
It is a _foundation model_, which means that it was first generally trained on a lot of data, | ||
and then can be adapted to specialised atmospheric forecasting tasks with relatively little data. | ||
We provide four such specialised versions: | ||
one for medium-resolution weather prediction, | ||
one for high-resolution weather prediction, | ||
one for air pollution prediction, | ||
and one for ocean wave prediction. | ||
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## Resources | ||
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* [Aurora Documentation for detailed instruction and examples](https://microsoft.github.io/aurora) | ||
* [Aurora Academic Paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2405.13063) | ||
* [A full-fledged example that runs the model on ERA5](https://microsoft.github.io/aurora/example_era5.html). | ||
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## Implementation | ||
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_The package currently includes the pretrained model and the fine-tuned version for high-resolution weather forecasting._ | ||
_We are working on the fine-tuned versions for air pollution and ocean wave forecasting, which will be included in due time._ |
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All versions of Aurora were extensively evaluated by evaluating predictions on data not seen during training. | ||
These evaluations not only compare measures of accuracy, such as the root mean square error and anomaly correlation coefficient, | ||
but also look at the behaviour in extreme situations, like extreme heat and cold, and rare events, like Storm Ciarán in 2023. | ||
These evaluations are the main topic of [the paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.13063). | ||
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*Note: The documentation included in this file is for informational purposes only and is not intended to supersede the applicable license terms.* |
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path: | ||
container_name: models | ||
container_path: microsoft/aurora/20250114/aurora_mlflow_pyfunc | ||
storage_name: automlcesdkdataresources | ||
type: azureblob | ||
publish: | ||
description: description.md | ||
type: mlflow_model |
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## Security | ||
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See [SECURITY](https://github.com/microsoft/aurora/blob/main/SECURITY.md). | ||
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## Responsible AI Transparency Documentation | ||
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An AI system includes not only the technology, but also the people who will use it, the people who will be affected by it, and the environment in which it is deployed. | ||
Creating a system that is fit for its intended purpose requires an understanding of how the technology works, its capabilities and limitations, and how to achieve the best performance. | ||
Microsoft has a broad effort to put our AI principles into practice. | ||
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To find out more, see [Responsible AI principles from Microsoft](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/ai/responsible-ai). | ||
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### Limitations | ||
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Although Aurora was trained to accurately predict future weather, air pollution, and ocean waves, | ||
Aurora is based on neural networks, which means that there are no strict guarantees that predictions will always be accurate. | ||
Altering the inputs, providing a sample that was not in the training set, | ||
or even providing a sample that was in the training set but is simply unlucky may result in arbitrarily poor predictions. | ||
In addition, even though Aurora was trained on a wide variety of data sets, | ||
it is possible that Aurora inherits biases present in any one of those data sets. | ||
A forecasting system like Aurora is only one piece of the puzzle in a weather prediction pipeline, | ||
and its outputs are not meant to be directly used by people or businesses to plan their operations. | ||
A series of additional verification tests are needed before it can become operationally useful. | ||
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### Data | ||
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The models included in the code have been trained on a variety of publicly available data. | ||
A description of all data, including download links, can be found in [Supplementary C of the paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2405.13063). | ||
The checkpoints include data from ERA5, CMCC, IFS-HR, HRES T0, GFS T0 analysis, and GFS forecasts. | ||
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## Trademarks | ||
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This project may contain trademarks or logos for projects, products, or services. | ||
Authorized use of Microsoft trademarks or logos is subject to and must follow [Microsoft's Trademark & Brand Guidelines](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/legal/intellectualproperty/trademarks/usage/general). | ||
Use of Microsoft trademarks or logos in modified versions of this project must not cause confusion or imply Microsoft sponsorship. | ||
Any use of third-party trademarks or logos are subject to those third-party's policies. | ||
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## FAQ | ||
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### Why are the fine-tuned versions of Aurora for air quality and ocean wave forecasting missing? | ||
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The package currently includes the pretrained model and the fine-tuned version for high-resolution weather forecasting. | ||
We are working on the fine-tuned versions for air pollution and ocean wave forecasting, which will be included in due time. |
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$schema: https://azuremlschemas.azureedge.net/latest/model.schema.json | ||
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name: Aurora | ||
path: ./ | ||
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properties: | ||
languages: EN | ||
inference-min-sku-spec: 24|1|220|64 | ||
inference-recommended-sku: Standard_NC24ads_A100_v4, Standard_NC48ads_A100_v4, Standard_NC96ads_A100_v4 | ||
SharedComputeCapacityEnabled: true | ||
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tags: | ||
industry: atmospheric-and-oceanic-physics | ||
task: environmental-forecasting | ||
Preview: "" | ||
Featured: "" | ||
author: Microsoft | ||
license: custom | ||
hiddenlayerscanned: "true" | ||
notes: "notes.md" | ||
disable-batch: true | ||
SharedComputeCapacityEnabled: "" | ||
inference_compute_allow_list: | ||
- Standard_NC24ads_A100_v4 | ||
- Standard_NC48ads_A100_v4 | ||
- Standard_NC96ads_A100_v4 | ||
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version: 1 |