2-Regression/3-Linear/notebook.ipynb

{
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   "cell_type": "markdown",
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   "source": [
    "## Pumpkin Pricing\n",
    "\n",
    "Load up required libraries and dataset. Convert the data to a dataframe containing a subset of the data: \n",
    "\n",
    "- Only get pumpkins priced by the bushel\n",
    "- Convert the date to a month\n",
    "- Calculate the price to be an average of high and low prices\n",
    "- Convert the price to reflect the pricing by bushel quantity"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {},
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    {
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       "<div>\n",
       "<style scoped>\n",
       "    .dataframe tbody tr th:only-of-type {\n",
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       "\n",
       "    .dataframe thead th {\n",
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       "    }\n",
       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>City Name</th>\n",
       "      <th>Type</th>\n",
       "      <th>Package</th>\n",
       "      <th>Variety</th>\n",
       "      <th>Sub Variety</th>\n",
       "      <th>Grade</th>\n",
       "      <th>Date</th>\n",
       "      <th>Low Price</th>\n",
       "      <th>High Price</th>\n",
       "      <th>Mostly Low</th>\n",
       "      <th>...</th>\n",
       "      <th>Unit of Sale</th>\n",
       "      <th>Quality</th>\n",
       "      <th>Condition</th>\n",
       "      <th>Appearance</th>\n",
       "      <th>Storage</th>\n",
       "      <th>Crop</th>\n",
       "      <th>Repack</th>\n",
       "      <th>Trans Mode</th>\n",
       "      <th>Unnamed: 24</th>\n",
       "      <th>Unnamed: 25</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>0</th>\n",
       "      <td>BALTIMORE</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>24 inch bins</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>4/29/17</td>\n",
       "      <td>270.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>280.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>270.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>E</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>1</th>\n",
       "      <td>BALTIMORE</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>24 inch bins</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>5/6/17</td>\n",
       "      <td>270.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>280.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>270.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>E</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>2</th>\n",
       "      <td>BALTIMORE</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>24 inch bins</td>\n",
       "      <td>HOWDEN TYPE</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>9/24/16</td>\n",
       "      <td>160.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>160.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>160.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>N</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>3</th>\n",
       "      <td>BALTIMORE</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>24 inch bins</td>\n",
       "      <td>HOWDEN TYPE</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>9/24/16</td>\n",
       "      <td>160.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>160.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>160.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>N</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>4</th>\n",
       "      <td>BALTIMORE</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>24 inch bins</td>\n",
       "      <td>HOWDEN TYPE</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>11/5/16</td>\n",
       "      <td>90.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>100.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>90.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>...</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>N</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "      <td>NaN</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "<p>5 rows × 26 columns</p>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "   City Name Type       Package      Variety Sub Variety  Grade     Date  \\\n",
       "0  BALTIMORE  NaN  24 inch bins          NaN         NaN    NaN  4/29/17   \n",
       "1  BALTIMORE  NaN  24 inch bins          NaN         NaN    NaN   5/6/17   \n",
       "2  BALTIMORE  NaN  24 inch bins  HOWDEN TYPE         NaN    NaN  9/24/16   \n",
       "3  BALTIMORE  NaN  24 inch bins  HOWDEN TYPE         NaN    NaN  9/24/16   \n",
       "4  BALTIMORE  NaN  24 inch bins  HOWDEN TYPE         NaN    NaN  11/5/16   \n",
       "\n",
       "   Low Price  High Price  Mostly Low  ...  Unit of Sale Quality Condition  \\\n",
       "0      270.0       280.0       270.0  ...           NaN     NaN       NaN   \n",
       "1      270.0       280.0       270.0  ...           NaN     NaN       NaN   \n",
       "2      160.0       160.0       160.0  ...           NaN     NaN       NaN   \n",
       "3      160.0       160.0       160.0  ...           NaN     NaN       NaN   \n",
       "4       90.0       100.0        90.0  ...           NaN     NaN       NaN   \n",
       "\n",
       "  Appearance Storage  Crop Repack  Trans Mode  Unnamed: 24  Unnamed: 25  \n",
       "0        NaN     NaN   NaN      E         NaN          NaN          NaN  \n",
       "1        NaN     NaN   NaN      E         NaN          NaN          NaN  \n",
       "2        NaN     NaN   NaN      N         NaN          NaN          NaN  \n",
       "3        NaN     NaN   NaN      N         NaN          NaN          NaN  \n",
       "4        NaN     NaN   NaN      N         NaN          NaN          NaN  \n",
       "\n",
       "[5 rows x 26 columns]"
      ]
     },
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     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "from datetime import datetime\n",
    "\n",
    "pumpkins = pd.read_csv('../data/US-pumpkins.csv')\n",
    "\n",
    "pumpkins.head()\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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       "<div>\n",
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       "\n",
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       "</style>\n",
       "<table border=\"1\" class=\"dataframe\">\n",
       "  <thead>\n",
       "    <tr style=\"text-align: right;\">\n",
       "      <th></th>\n",
       "      <th>Month</th>\n",
       "      <th>Variety</th>\n",
       "      <th>City</th>\n",
       "      <th>Package</th>\n",
       "      <th>Low Price</th>\n",
       "      <th>High Price</th>\n",
       "      <th>Price</th>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </thead>\n",
       "  <tbody>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>70</th>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>PIE TYPE</td>\n",
       "      <td>BALTIMORE</td>\n",
       "      <td>1 1/9 bushel cartons</td>\n",
       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>13.636364</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>71</th>\n",
       "      <td>9</td>\n",
       "      <td>PIE TYPE</td>\n",
       "      <td>BALTIMORE</td>\n",
       "      <td>1 1/9 bushel cartons</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>16.363636</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>72</th>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>PIE TYPE</td>\n",
       "      <td>BALTIMORE</td>\n",
       "      <td>1 1/9 bushel cartons</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>18.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>16.363636</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>73</th>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>PIE TYPE</td>\n",
       "      <td>BALTIMORE</td>\n",
       "      <td>1 1/9 bushel cartons</td>\n",
       "      <td>17.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>17.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>15.454545</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "    <tr>\n",
       "      <th>74</th>\n",
       "      <td>10</td>\n",
       "      <td>PIE TYPE</td>\n",
       "      <td>BALTIMORE</td>\n",
       "      <td>1 1/9 bushel cartons</td>\n",
       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>15.0</td>\n",
       "      <td>13.636364</td>\n",
       "    </tr>\n",
       "  </tbody>\n",
       "</table>\n",
       "</div>"
      ],
      "text/plain": [
       "    Month   Variety       City               Package  Low Price  High Price  \\\n",
       "70      9  PIE TYPE  BALTIMORE  1 1/9 bushel cartons       15.0        15.0   \n",
       "71      9  PIE TYPE  BALTIMORE  1 1/9 bushel cartons       18.0        18.0   \n",
       "72     10  PIE TYPE  BALTIMORE  1 1/9 bushel cartons       18.0        18.0   \n",
       "73     10  PIE TYPE  BALTIMORE  1 1/9 bushel cartons       17.0        17.0   \n",
       "74     10  PIE TYPE  BALTIMORE  1 1/9 bushel cartons       15.0        15.0   \n",
       "\n",
       "        Price  \n",
       "70  13.636364  \n",
       "71  16.363636  \n",
       "72  16.363636  \n",
       "73  15.454545  \n",
       "74  13.636364  "
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 3,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "pumpkins = pumpkins[pumpkins['Package'].str.contains('bushel', case=True, regex=True)]\n",
    "\n",
    "new_columns = ['Package', 'Variety', 'City Name', 'Month', 'Low Price', 'High Price', 'Date']\n",
    "pumpkins = pumpkins.drop([c for c in pumpkins.columns if c not in new_columns], axis=1)\n",
    "\n",
    "price = (pumpkins['Low Price'] + pumpkins['High Price']) / 2\n",
    "\n",
    "month = pd.DatetimeIndex(pumpkins['Date']).month\n",
    "day_of_year = pd.to_datetime(pumpkins['Date']).apply(lambda dt: (dt-datetime(dt.year,1,1)).days)\n",
    "\n",
    "new_pumpkins = pd.DataFrame(\n",
    "    {'Month': month, \n",
    "     'DayOfYear' : day_of_year, \n",
    "     'Variety': pumpkins['Variety'], \n",
    "     'City': pumpkins['City Name'], \n",
    "     'Package': pumpkins['Package'], \n",
    "     'Low Price': pumpkins['Low Price'],\n",
    "     'High Price': pumpkins['High Price'], \n",
    "     'Price': price})\n",
    "\n",
    "new_pumpkins.loc[new_pumpkins['Package'].str.contains('1 1/9'), 'Price'] = price/1.1\n",
    "new_pumpkins.loc[new_pumpkins['Package'].str.contains('1/2'), 'Price'] = price*2\n",
    "\n",
    "new_pumpkins.head()\n"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "A basic scatterplot reminds us that we only have month data from August through December. We probably need more data to be able to draw conclusions in a linear fashion."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "(array([ 7.5,  8. ,  8.5,  9. ,  9.5, 10. , 10.5, 11. , 11.5, 12. , 12.5]),\n",
       " <a list of 11 Text major ticklabel objects>)"
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      "text/plain": [
       "<Figure size 432x288 with 1 Axes>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {
      "needs_background": "light"
     },
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "plt.scatter('Month','Price',data=new_pumpkins)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
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