Empty 'probabilityOfThunder'

[tflight]

I'm working on a project where I'd like to look at data that forecasts the chance of thunderstorms. The probabilityOfThunder field would seem to be what I'm looking for, but it appears empty, even when in the weather it says thunderstorms are likely.

Am I misinterpreting what that field should show, or is there a reason it is empty that isn't obvious to me?

[mjgiancola]

I'm having a similar issue. I've looked at several locations and this field, as well as many others (probabilityOfTropicalStormWinds, probabilityOfHurricaneWinds, potentialOf15mphWinds, etc.) seem to always be empty. Are there any locations in which we could expect that these fields are given values?

[dwhitemv25]

The original post was from 2020. I'm sure OP is mightily confused why someone is responding to their 3 year old post.

The National Digital Forecast Database elements for tropical or convective hazards may only have data if data has been uploaded by the originating forecast center. If your weather doesn't meet the criteria then the value will be null or zero. Next time you think you should have data for an element, go to this site and check the desired elements (second dropbox from the left) and see if any non-zero probability covers your area:

https://digital.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/

(This is a graphical representation of the data source the /gridpoints endpoint uses.)

For the tropical elements, they may only show up if one of the forecast centers (NHC, SPC, WPC, etc.) has posted data for tropical weather.

[tflight]

I'm sure OP is mightily confused why someone is responding to their 3 year old post.

No, I'm not confused why someone is responding to the post. I am still confused by the data. I was looking at this issue again about a month ago and still puzzled. The text forecast showed thunderstorms were likely yet probabilityOfThunder was empty.

[mjgiancola]

Yes, these are fields in "forecastGridData". I understand that may be the case, but as I said above, I haven't found a single instance in which any of these fields are populated. I'm currently just trying to do simple experiments with the API so if anyone could point me to a case where literally any of the aforementioned fields are populated that would be super helpful.

[sullynole]

Here is a current example of probabilityOfThunder populated: https://api.weather.gov/gridpoints/TBW/62,91

[tflight]

If there is no value, is there a way to determine if that is because there actually isn't a probability of thunder or if the data just isn't available for some reason?

[sullynole]

I am not sure how each office handles this field (and related fields). My suggestion would be that missing is unknown either way. Generally if it is there at a certain threshold, and depending on the PoP, then a chance of rain may become a chance of thunderstorms.

These are the kind of data that are used to create the forecast endpoints text and on forecast.weather.gov, so it's usually better to get that information there.

[mjgiancola]

I haven't been able to find this kind of data on forecast.weather.gov. The MapClick API for Tampa Bay (the location from your example above) mentions thunderstorms in the forecasts but doesn't give the probabilities.