|
188 | 188 | "\n",
|
189 | 189 | " # For the forecasts we need a function that lets us take draws from the distribution. We'll get the mean\n",
|
190 | 190 | " # and covariance from samples by calling it a lot of times.\n",
|
191 |
| - " f_forecast = pm.compile_pymc(pm.inputvars(obs_forecast), obs_forecast, mode=\"JAX\")\n", |
| 191 | + " f_forecast = pm.compile(pm.inputvars(obs_forecast), obs_forecast, mode=\"JAX\")\n", |
192 | 192 | "\n",
|
193 | 193 | " return f_ets, f_forecast\n",
|
194 | 194 | "\n",
|
|
863 | 863 | "</pre>\n"
|
864 | 864 | ],
|
865 | 865 | "text/plain": [
|
866 |
| - "\u001b[3m Model Requirements \u001b[0m\n", |
| 866 | + "\u001B[3m Model Requirements \u001B[0m\n", |
867 | 867 | " \n",
|
868 |
| - " \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mVariable \u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mShape\u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mConstraints \u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mDimensions\u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \n", |
| 868 | + " \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mVariable \u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mShape\u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mConstraints \u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mDimensions\u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \n", |
869 | 869 | " ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── \n",
|
870 |
| - " initial_level \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
871 |
| - " alpha \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < alpha < \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
872 |
| - " sigma_state \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m Positive \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
| 870 | + " initial_level \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 871 | + " alpha \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < alpha < \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 872 | + " sigma_state \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m Positive \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
873 | 873 | " \n",
|
874 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m These parameters should be assigned priors inside a \u001b[0m\n", |
875 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m PyMC model block before calling the \u001b[0m\n", |
876 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m build_statespace_graph method. \u001b[0m\n" |
| 874 | + "\u001B[2;3m These parameters should be assigned priors inside a \u001B[0m\n", |
| 875 | + "\u001B[2;3m PyMC model block before calling the \u001B[0m\n", |
| 876 | + "\u001B[2;3m build_statespace_graph method. \u001B[0m\n" |
877 | 877 | ]
|
878 | 878 | },
|
879 | 879 | "metadata": {},
|
|
1394 | 1394 | "</pre>\n"
|
1395 | 1395 | ],
|
1396 | 1396 | "text/plain": [
|
1397 |
| - "\u001b[3m Model Requirements \u001b[0m\n", |
| 1397 | + "\u001B[3m Model Requirements \u001B[0m\n", |
1398 | 1398 | " \n",
|
1399 |
| - " \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mVariable \u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mShape\u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mConstraints \u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mDimensions\u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \n", |
| 1399 | + " \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mVariable \u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mShape\u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mConstraints \u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mDimensions\u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \n", |
1400 | 1400 | " ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── \n",
|
1401 |
| - " initial_level \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
1402 |
| - " initial_trend \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
1403 |
| - " alpha \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < alpha < \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
1404 |
| - " beta \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < beta < \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
1405 |
| - " sigma_state \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m Positive \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
| 1401 | + " initial_level \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 1402 | + " initial_trend \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 1403 | + " alpha \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < alpha < \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 1404 | + " beta \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < beta < \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 1405 | + " sigma_state \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m Positive \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
1406 | 1406 | " \n",
|
1407 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m These parameters should be assigned priors inside a \u001b[0m\n", |
1408 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m PyMC model block before calling the \u001b[0m\n", |
1409 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m build_statespace_graph method. \u001b[0m\n" |
| 1407 | + "\u001B[2;3m These parameters should be assigned priors inside a \u001B[0m\n", |
| 1408 | + "\u001B[2;3m PyMC model block before calling the \u001B[0m\n", |
| 1409 | + "\u001B[2;3m build_statespace_graph method. \u001B[0m\n" |
1410 | 1410 | ]
|
1411 | 1411 | },
|
1412 | 1412 | "metadata": {},
|
|
2044 | 2044 | "</pre>\n"
|
2045 | 2045 | ],
|
2046 | 2046 | "text/plain": [
|
2047 |
| - "\u001b[3m Model Requirements \u001b[0m\n", |
| 2047 | + "\u001B[3m Model Requirements \u001B[0m\n", |
2048 | 2048 | " \n",
|
2049 |
| - " \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mVariable \u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mShape\u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mConstraints \u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mDimensions\u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \n", |
| 2049 | + " \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mVariable \u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mShape\u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mConstraints \u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mDimensions\u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \n", |
2050 | 2050 | " ──────────────────────────────────────────────────── \n",
|
2051 |
| - " initial_level \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
2052 |
| - " initial_trend \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
2053 |
| - " alpha \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < alpha < \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
2054 |
| - " beta \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < beta < \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
2055 |
| - " phi \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < phi < \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
2056 |
| - " sigma_state \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m Positive \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
| 2051 | + " initial_level \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 2052 | + " initial_trend \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 2053 | + " alpha \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < alpha < \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 2054 | + " beta \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < beta < \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 2055 | + " phi \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < phi < \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 2056 | + " sigma_state \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m Positive \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
2057 | 2057 | " \n",
|
2058 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m These parameters should be assigned priors inside a \u001b[0m\n", |
2059 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m PyMC model block before calling the \u001b[0m\n", |
2060 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m build_statespace_graph method. \u001b[0m\n" |
| 2058 | + "\u001B[2;3m These parameters should be assigned priors inside a \u001B[0m\n", |
| 2059 | + "\u001B[2;3m PyMC model block before calling the \u001B[0m\n", |
| 2060 | + "\u001B[2;3m build_statespace_graph method. \u001B[0m\n" |
2061 | 2061 | ]
|
2062 | 2062 | },
|
2063 | 2063 | "metadata": {},
|
|
2664 | 2664 | "</pre>\n"
|
2665 | 2665 | ],
|
2666 | 2666 | "text/plain": [
|
2667 |
| - "\u001b[3m Model Requirements \u001b[0m\n", |
| 2667 | + "\u001B[3m Model Requirements \u001B[0m\n", |
2668 | 2668 | " \n",
|
2669 |
| - " \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mVariable \u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mShape \u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mConstraints \u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1m Dimensions\u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \n", |
| 2669 | + " \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mVariable \u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mShape \u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mConstraints \u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1m Dimensions\u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \n", |
2670 | 2670 | " ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── \n",
|
2671 |
| - " initial_level \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[1;36m2\u001b[0m,\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[32m'observed_state'\u001b[0m,\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \n", |
2672 |
| - " initial_trend \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[1;36m2\u001b[0m,\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[32m'observed_state'\u001b[0m,\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \n", |
2673 |
| - " alpha \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[1;36m2\u001b[0m,\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < alpha < \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[32m'observed_state'\u001b[0m,\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \n", |
2674 |
| - " beta \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[1;36m2\u001b[0m,\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < beta < \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[32m'observed_state'\u001b[0m,\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \n", |
2675 |
| - " phi \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[1;36m2\u001b[0m,\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < phi < \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[32m'observed_state'\u001b[0m,\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \n", |
2676 |
| - " state_cov \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[1;36m2\u001b[0m, \u001b[1;36m2\u001b[0m\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m Positive Semi-definite \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[32m'observed_state'\u001b[0m, \u001b[32m'observed_state_aux'\u001b[0m\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \n", |
| 2671 | + " initial_level \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[1;36m2\u001B[0m,\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[32m'observed_state'\u001B[0m,\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \n", |
| 2672 | + " initial_trend \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[1;36m2\u001B[0m,\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[32m'observed_state'\u001B[0m,\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \n", |
| 2673 | + " alpha \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[1;36m2\u001B[0m,\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < alpha < \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[32m'observed_state'\u001B[0m,\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \n", |
| 2674 | + " beta \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[1;36m2\u001B[0m,\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < beta < \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[32m'observed_state'\u001B[0m,\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \n", |
| 2675 | + " phi \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[1;36m2\u001B[0m,\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < phi < \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[32m'observed_state'\u001B[0m,\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \n", |
| 2676 | + " state_cov \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[1;36m2\u001B[0m, \u001B[1;36m2\u001B[0m\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m Positive Semi-definite \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[32m'observed_state'\u001B[0m, \u001B[32m'observed_state_aux'\u001B[0m\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \n", |
2677 | 2677 | " \n",
|
2678 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m These parameters should be assigned priors inside a PyMC model block before calling the \u001b[0m\n", |
2679 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m build_statespace_graph method. \u001b[0m\n" |
| 2678 | + "\u001B[2;3m These parameters should be assigned priors inside a PyMC model block before calling the \u001B[0m\n", |
| 2679 | + "\u001B[2;3m build_statespace_graph method. \u001B[0m\n" |
2680 | 2680 | ]
|
2681 | 2681 | },
|
2682 | 2682 | "metadata": {},
|
|
3633 | 3633 | "</pre>\n"
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3634 | 3634 | ],
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3635 | 3635 | "text/plain": [
|
3636 |
| - "\u001b[3m Model Requirements \u001b[0m\n", |
| 3636 | + "\u001B[3m Model Requirements \u001B[0m\n", |
3637 | 3637 | " \n",
|
3638 |
| - " \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mVariable \u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mShape\u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1mConstraints \u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \u001b[1m \u001b[0m\u001b[1m Dimensions\u001b[0m\u001b[1m \u001b[0m \n", |
| 3638 | + " \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mVariable \u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mShape\u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1mConstraints \u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \u001B[1m \u001B[0m\u001B[1m Dimensions\u001B[0m\u001B[1m \u001B[0m \n", |
3639 | 3639 | " ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── \n",
|
3640 |
| - " initial_level \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
3641 |
| - " initial_trend \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
3642 |
| - " initial_seasonal \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[1;36m12\u001b[0m,\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \u001b[1m(\u001b[0m\u001b[32m'seasonal_lag'\u001b[0m,\u001b[1m)\u001b[0m \n", |
3643 |
| - " alpha \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < alpha < \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
3644 |
| - " beta \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < beta < \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
3645 |
| - " gamma \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < gamma< \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
3646 |
| - " phi \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \u001b[1;36m0\u001b[0m < phi < \u001b[1;36m1\u001b[0m \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
3647 |
| - " sigma_state \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m Positive \u001b[3;35mNone\u001b[0m \n", |
| 3640 | + " initial_level \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 3641 | + " initial_trend \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 3642 | + " initial_seasonal \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[1;36m12\u001B[0m,\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \u001B[1m(\u001B[0m\u001B[32m'seasonal_lag'\u001B[0m,\u001B[1m)\u001B[0m \n", |
| 3643 | + " alpha \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < alpha < \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 3644 | + " beta \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < beta < \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 3645 | + " gamma \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < gamma< \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 3646 | + " phi \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \u001B[1;36m0\u001B[0m < phi < \u001B[1;36m1\u001B[0m \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
| 3647 | + " sigma_state \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m Positive \u001B[3;35mNone\u001B[0m \n", |
3648 | 3648 | " \n",
|
3649 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m These parameters should be assigned priors inside a PyMC model \u001b[0m\n", |
3650 |
| - "\u001b[2;3m block before calling the build_statespace_graph method. \u001b[0m\n" |
| 3649 | + "\u001B[2;3m These parameters should be assigned priors inside a PyMC model \u001B[0m\n", |
| 3650 | + "\u001B[2;3m block before calling the build_statespace_graph method. \u001B[0m\n" |
3651 | 3651 | ]
|
3652 | 3652 | },
|
3653 | 3653 | "metadata": {},
|
|
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