Suggestion: An interactive simulation?

[ndphillips]

The riskyr package is looking great!

As I was looking through the (very good!) documentation and examples on GitHub, I thought of one other communication tool you might consider. Namely, creating an interactive Shiny application that allows people to interactively sample cases and observe outcomes. I know this technique has gotten some buzz in jdm and forecasting areas recently (though I can't remember the exact papers right now..)

There are many ways you could do this, but one way would be a screen like this one:

every time the user clicks a "Next case" button, a ball falling from 'the sky' which are either Red (true positive) or Blue (true negative) cases. Then, they cross a decision line, where they are classified as either positive or negative based on the sensitivity / specificity of the test.

Positive classifications go to the left, and negative classifications go to the right.

Over time, the ever-growing group of classified cases would form an icon array.

Just an idea :)

[hneth]

Thanks for the suggestion, Nathaniel! (And no wonder riskyr is getting good — we've been learning from the best...)

When adding options to randomize a population and shuffle its icon array we've been toying with the idea of adding sampling to riskyr objects to illustrate the differences between a population and its samples. From there a logical next step would be to sequentially classify individual cases into the 4 SDT categories (quasi "by experience").

A related idea is to use the probabilities provided by a scenario ("by description") to actually generate (statistical) samples and populations. Whereas the functions implemented so far ensure that derived frequencies precisely match the original probability inputs (except for rounding errors), using probabilities in such a generative fashion would allow for instructive deviations (especially for smaller sample sizes).

Overall, there are many different possible future directions — and far too little time to pursue them all, unfortunately. So feel free to join in any time!

More on all else soon,
Hans