add shrinking-computers blog post

Author: davearonson

_posts/2024-08-10-incredible-shrinking-computer.md

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+---
+author: Dave Aronson
+date: 2024-08-10
+layout: blog-post
+permalink: blog/incredible-shrinking-computer
+section: Blog
+tags: predictions
+title: The Incredible Shrinking Computer
+---
+
+<div style="align-items: center; display: flex; justify-content: center; text-align: center">
+  <figure>
+    <img src="/assets/img/mainframe.jpg" height="200"
+     alt="man using a mainframe console, with mainframe in background">
+    <figcaption><span style="font-size: .4em">Image: https://www.flickr.com/photos/aaronpk/6063447236</span></figcaption>
+  </figure>
+  <span style="font-size: 5em">&#10132;</span>
+  <figure>
+    <img src="/assets/img/tiny-server.jpg" height="200"
+     alt="very small computer next to soda can and laptop">
+    <figcaption><span style="font-size: .4em">Image: https://www.flickr.com/photos/aaronpk/6063447236</span></figcaption>
+  </figure>
+  <span style="font-size: 5em">&#10132;</span>
+  <span style="font-size: 10em">&nbsp;?</span>
+</div>
+
+This is a prediction I have made verbally
+many times over the past several years,
+but recently had occasion to write down,
+so I figured I may as well record it here for posterity.
+
+===8<---cut-here---
+
+Within a few decades, for most individuals,
+a "computer" will be a small box
+that could fit easily in a pocket
+or be worn like a watch or pendant.&nbsp;
+Even most of that thing’s size will be
+physical protection, battery, a medium for personalization (the surface),
+and just making it big enough not to be lost so easily.&nbsp;
+The actual computer itself will be
+a single smallish chip, or a few of them on a very small motherboard.&nbsp;
+This will include at least the RAM, CPU, mass storage,
+and some communication as below.&nbsp;
+(Not sure about GPU;
+that may be delegated to the various form factors as below.)
+
+Now you may be wondering, how would we _use_ such a tiny thing?&nbsp;
+Their watch, phone, tablet, laptop, and desktop,
+and possibly further things such as VR glasses, brain implants,
+plus things we have yet to imagine,
+will be basically nothing but docking stations _for the same "computer"_,
+to allow for various sizes and types of human interface.&nbsp;
+(Including possibly taking over GPU duties.)
+
+Said chip won’t even have to be physically inserted or attached,
+but communicate over something basically equivalent to
+high speed very short range Bluetooth.&nbsp;
+(Of course options would exist for use-cases where
+it would be further from the user,
+akin to today’s Bluetooth speakers.)&nbsp;
+We’ll be back to having one "computer" per person,
+though maybe additional ones issued by work,
+and of course we nerds would still want to play with different kinds.&nbsp;
+There will still be different kinds (or OSes) better suited to different tasks,
+but most people will still stick with one.
+
+They’ll be cheap enough that you don’t need to do something like
+install Linux on an old one to make it affordable
+(versus the ones from Apple, with MacOS installed,
+or one that can run Windows reasonably performantly),
+though of course Open Source enthusiasts will still do so.&nbsp;
+Within a few more decades they’ll be cheap enough that
+your kids might get them for free in their breakfast cereal.
+
+(Servers are a different matter.&nbsp;
+Just as with today’s machines,
+one of these may be enough for a small company’s shared-IT needs,
+while larger companies may need multiple, or something beefier,
+and there will be more and more "data centers" and VM providers.&nbsp;
+This will NOT shrink them, as demand will grow to match or exceed supply.)
+
+===8<---cut-here---
+
+(Note, this is not including
+any breakthroughs in _quantum_ computing.&nbsp;
+I don't foresee much happening there
+that would affect this much very soon.&nbsp;
+There may be helpful breakthroughs in
+room-temperature superconductivity,
+but thermal noise remains a very thorny issue,
+never mind larger physical vibrations.)
+
+So what do _you_ think?&nbsp;
+Write your thoughts below!